Policy incentives for Greenhouse Gas Removal Techniques: the risks of premature inclusion in carbon markets and the need for a multi-pronged policy framework

Almost all modelled emissions scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global temperature increase to well below two degrees include use greenhouse gas removal (GGR) techniques. Despite prevalence GGR in Paris-consistent scenarios, and indeed UK's own net-zero target, there is a paucity regulatory support for emerging However, role carbon pricing one area that has experienced more attention than others, including discussion about future inclusion markets. Here we identify three risks associated using markets as sole, or main, policy lever encourage deployment Our categorisation stems from discussions policymakers UK review broader literature on GGR. We present three-pronged risk assessment framework highlight dangers doing so. First, treating removals reductions entirely fungible allows undesirable substitution. Second, may provide insufficient demand pull drive currently more-costly techniques at commercial scales. Third, opening up market potentially lower-cost (such nature-based solutions) too early could exert downward pressure overall market-based price carbon, absence adjustments caps other safeguards. discuss how these hamper efforts deploy GGR, instead suggest multi-pronged intertemporal governance This includes considering separate accounting targets conventional abatement, removing perfect fungibility between permits promoting wide range innovation technology-specific mechanisms expensive, yet highly scalable technological down cost curve. Such would ensure can utilise incentives appropriately development without compromising near-term mitigation, representation low-carbon pathways cognisant its real-world scale-up potential light incentives.